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Henry Mikheev
Henry Mikheev

20 Cannabis Predictions For 2020



We asked 20 safety and health leaders from various industries to give us their predictions on the trends they see most affecting occupational health in 2020 and beyond. After talking to these subject matter experts, we noticed several themes emerge.




20 cannabis predictions for 2020



The ongoing trend toward legalization of cannabis for medicinal/recreational purposes is expected to increase the prevalence of cannabis use disorder (CUD). Thus, it is imperative to be able to predict the quantitative risk of developing CUD for a cannabis user based on their personal risk factors. Yet no such model currently exists. In this study, we perform preliminary analysis toward building such a model. The data come from n = 94 regular cannabis users recruited from Albuquerque, New Mexico during 2007-2010. As the data are cross-sectional, we only consider risk factors that remain relatively stable over time. We apply statistical and machine learning classification techniques that allow n to be small relative to the number of predictors. We use predictive accuracy estimated using leave-one-out-cross-validation to evaluate model performance. The final model is a LASSO logistic regression model consisting of the following seven risk factors: age; level of enjoyment from initial cigarette smoking; total score on Impulsive Sensation-Seeking Scale questionnaire; score on cognitive instability factor of Barratt Impulsivity Scale questionnaire; and scores on neuroticism, openness, and conscientiousness personality traits of Neuroticism, Extraversion, and Openness inventory. This model has an overall accuracy of 0.66 and the area under its receiver operating characteristic curve is 0.65. In summary, a preliminary relative risk model for predicting the quantitative risk of CUD is developed. It can be employed to identify users at high risk of CUD who may be provided with early intervention.


Nearly every jurisdiction in the United States and Canada declared cannabis an essential service and most cannabis retailers remained open during the pandemic, and consumers have continued shopping, though their behaviors have changed somewhat during the crisis.


Affecting industries as diverse as cosmetics, food and beverage and pharmaceuticals, the exploding CBD (cannabidiol) market has generated considerable headlines, providing fodder to umpteenth analysis and forecasts. The latest one, by leading cannabis researchers BDS Analytics and Arcview Market Research, projects that the collective market for CBD sales in the U.S. will surpass $20 billion by 2024. Interestingly, this figure is a slight increase from than the recent forecast made by New York-based investment bank Cowen & Co, which estimated that the market could pull in $15 billion by 2025.


The new forecast takes into account products sold through licensed dispensaries, pharmaceuticals and in general market retail, which includes cafes, smoke shops, grocery stores and pharmacies. However, BDS Analytics predicts that the majority of CBD product sales will soon occur in general retail stores instead of cannabis dispensaries. When you consider how cannabis has become increasingly integrated into mainstream society, as represented by the number of states that have legalized recreational or medical markets (33 and D.C for recreational use and 10 states plus D.C. for adult use), the BDS prognostication makes perfect sense.


In addition to being credited for creating the class of lawyers now known as 'cannabis attorneys,' my M&A work, legal strategies, litigation efforts, and public policy accomplishments have been highly influential in the establishment and growth of the 'Marijuana,' hemp, and CBD sectors, domestically and abroad.


I am a freelance journalist interested in international news and the cannabis industry. I write about a wide range of topics for several international news media outlets. As a cannabis writer, I write stories about recreational cannabis, legalization, cannabis science, medical cannabis, regulatory framework, hemp industry and CBD.


As well as writing regularly on Weed World magazine, I run its Italian online edition. My work related to the cannabis industry also appears on High Times and CBD-Intel. Check out my portfolio at www.dariosabaghi.com. On Twitter: @DarioSabaghi.


It's a brand-new year, and boy, does 2020 have some big shoes to fill. Last year, we witnessed the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.82%) gallop higher by nearly 29%, which is quadruple the historic average annual return of the stock market, inclusive of dividend reinvestment and when adjusted for inflation.


However, just because the data suggests the broader market will rise in 2020, it doesn't mean we're going to head straight up. Over the past 70 years, the S&P 500 has undergone 37 corrections of at least 10% (not including rounding), and many more if you count those in the 8%-9.9% range. It's a rarity when we escape a given year without at least one good scare or shakeout, and I don't believe 2020 will be an exception. With plenty of uncertainty still on the table, including the U.S.-China trade war, a correction of at least 10% in the S&P 500 has a better chance of occurring than not occurring in 2020.


Despite turning in substantive gains in 2019, physical gold and silver are both primed for another lustrous year in 2020. Although we typically think of gold and silver as being safe-haven investments that are flocked to during periods of uncertainty, the biggest catalyst for precious metals continues to be an extremely low-yield environment. With bank CDs and Treasury notes struggling to keep up with the inflation rate, precious metals like gold and silver, which have no yield, should remain an attractive alternative to fixed-income assets.


After sitting on his laurels for more than 3.5 years and allowing Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile to grow to a record $128.2 billion, as of the end of September, 2020 will be the year that Buffett finally makes a large purchase.


Although this might be hard to believe, the second worst-performing sector within the S&P 500 in 2019 was healthcare, with only the energy sector logging a worse gain. As we move headlong into 2020, I'll be looking for healthcare to lead the charge higher.


The FAANG stocks -- that's Facebook (META -4.18%), Apple, Amazon, Netflix (NFLX -0.59%), and Google, which is now a subsidiary of Alphabet -- have substantially outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 over the past decade. I expect that trend will continue in 2020, when taken as a whole.


Though they're often sought after for their incredible growth and market share in their respective industries, most of the FAANG stocks are now valued at reasonably attractive levels relative to their cash flow potential. While I wouldn't go so far as to refer to them as value stocks, there's definitely a more convincing value argument than there's ever been. Amazon, for instance, has traded at an average price-to-cash-flow of 30 over the past five years, yet is valued at only 20 times Wall Street's price-to-cash-flow estimate for 2020.


It's also set to face a host of new competition. The emergence of a boatload of new streaming services between Nov. 2019 and May 2020, including Disney+ from Walt Disney, Apple TV+ from Apple, HBO Max from AT&T (T -1.01%), and Peacock from NBCUniversal, along with existing competition from the likes of Amazon Prime Video and Alphabet's YouTube TV, could provide more pressure to Netflix's domestic streaming business than the company has ever seen. I'm not expecting 2020 to be a banner year for Netflix.


Bitcoin's big rally in 2019 looks to have been fueled by the expected halving of the block reward for cryptocurrency miners in May 2020. We witnessed a similar rally in bitcoin prior to the previous block reward halving in July 2016, with miners attempting to lock in as high of a reward as possible for proofing blockchain transactions.


Unfortunately for bitcoin, the catalysts look few and far between beyond May. Bitcoin's underlying technology, blockchain, hasn't taken off at the enterprise level as planned, and bitcoin itself is a fundamentally flawed investment. And, as the icing on the cake, the Securities and Exchange Commission remains leery of bitcoin and has yet to authorize a bitcoin-based exchange-traded fund. In other words, avoid bitcoin in 2020!


Pretty much every year we witness a storied business go bankrupt. Last year, embattled electric utility PG&E and mall-based retailer Forever 21 filed for bankruptcy protection, while in 2018 it was childhood favorite Toys R Us. In 2020, my expectation is that 58-year-old home furnishings retailer Pier 1 Imports (PIRRQ) cries uncle and goes bankrupt.


Following what seemed like open season for M&A since 2018 began, a number of deals have recently been amended or terminated, including MedMen Enterprises' now shelved deal to buy privately held multistate operator PharmaCann. With financing a major concern for pot stocks, especially those in the U.S. because of the illegality of cannabis at the federal level, it wouldn't be surprising to see M&A activity completely stop in 2020 as the industry looks to conserve capital. 350c69d7ab


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